A21: comparison exhibits and calculation notes
The table shows published growth rates and one-at-a-time diagnostics. Rates and gaps are percentage values or percentage points, as labeled. Source cells and definitions are cited below.
Fifteen-row sensitivity exhibit
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| Series | Period | Measure | Growth (%) | PFCE minus HCES (pp) | Status and limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFCE per person | FY Apr-Mar | nominal, national accounts | 8.89 | published; closer aggregate consumption benchmark | |
| PFCE per person | FY Apr-Mar | real, official | 5.28 | published | |
| HCES MPCE rural ordinary | Aug-Jul | nominal, HCES | 9.25 | published survey mean | |
| HCES MPCE rural ordinary | Aug-Jul | real, official CPI(R/U) | 3.54 | 1.75 | published survey mean; FY benchmark period differs |
| HCES MPCE rural ordinary | Aug-Jul | nominal with PFCE implied price change | 5.63 | -0.34 | diagnostic only; not a replacement HCES deflator |
| HCES MPCE urban ordinary | Aug-Jul | nominal, HCES | 8.31 | published survey mean | |
| HCES MPCE urban ordinary | Aug-Jul | real, official CPI(R/U) | 3.48 | 1.81 | published survey mean; FY benchmark period differs |
| HCES MPCE urban ordinary | Aug-Jul | nominal with PFCE implied price change | 4.72 | 0.56 | diagnostic only; not a replacement HCES deflator |
| HCES MPCE rural selected free-item | Aug-Jul | nominal, HCES | 10.03 | published survey mean | |
| HCES MPCE rural selected free-item | Aug-Jul | real, official CPI(R/U) | 4.28 | 1.00 | published survey mean; FY benchmark period differs |
| HCES MPCE urban selected free-item | Aug-Jul | nominal, HCES | 8.54 | published survey mean | |
| HCES MPCE urban selected free-item | Aug-Jul | real, official CPI(R/U) | 3.70 | 1.59 | published survey mean; FY benchmark period differs |
| PFCE per person | approx Aug-Jul | real, quarter-weighted | 5.11 | timing diagnostic; equal intra-quarter flow and population interpolation | |
| PFCE vs HCES MPCE rural ordinary | approx Aug-Jul vs survey Aug-Jul | real growth difference | 1.57 | timing diagnostic; HCES item recall still differs | |
| PFCE vs HCES MPCE urban ordinary | approx Aug-Jul vs survey Aug-Jul | real growth difference | 1.63 | timing diagnostic; HCES item recall still differs |
Fixed comparison
- NAS edition: 31 August 2026 National Accounts Statistics 2026, base 2022–23, with FY 2022–23 and FY 2023–24 values taken from the same edition. No February/June cells enter the comparison.
- HCES: August 2022–July 2023 and August 2023–July 2024. Rural and urban MPCE stay separate. Both are means assigned to persons from their household's consumption, not medians or panels.
- Nominal and real growth for a given series are
(new / old - 1) × 100. Percentage-point contrasts subtract growth rates; no level subtraction across PFCE and MPCE is made. Source HCES MPCE cells are rounded whole rupees, so derived rates should be presented as approximate.
Core arithmetic
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| Calculation | Formula/input | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rural ordinary nominal MPCE growth | 4,122 / 3,773 − 1 | 9.2499% |
| Urban ordinary nominal MPCE growth | 6,996 / 6,459 − 1 | 8.3140% |
| Rural ordinary real MPCE growth | 2,079 / 2,008 − 1 | 3.5359% |
| Urban ordinary real MPCE growth | 3,632 / 3,510 − 1 | 3.4758% |
| Extra-imputed rural real MPCE growth | 2,142 / 2,054 − 1 | 4.2843% |
| Extra-imputed urban real MPCE growth | 3,674 / 3,543 − 1 | 3.6974% |
| Nominal PFCE per-person growth | 117,633.861119707 / 108,026.007356823 − 1 | 8.8940% |
| Real PFCE per-person growth | 113,733.363955177 / 108,026.007356823 − 1 | 5.2833% |
| Real GDP per-person growth | 201,324.264115189 / 189,291.452888021 − 1 | 6.3568% |
| Real NNI per-person growth | 171,422.014471476 / 160,694.276826715 − 1 | 6.6759% |
Ordinary PFCE minus HCES real-growth differences: 1.7475 percentage points rural, 1.8075 urban. With selected free-item imputation: 0.9990 rural, 1.5859 urban. The imputation contrasts alter the survey measure; they do not isolate the causal value of transfers.
The implied price-change calculation is (1 + nominal growth)/(1 + real growth) - 1. Results: PFCE 3.4295%, ordinary rural MPCE 5.5189%, ordinary urban MPCE 4.6757%. Applying the PFCE implied price change to nominal HCES growth, (1 + nominal MPCE growth)/(1 + PFCE implied price change) - 1, gives 5.6274% rural and 4.7225% urban. The first exceeds real PFCE per-person growth by 0.3441 point; the second trails by 0.5608 point. This imposed common-deflator scenario is diagnostic, not a revised HCES series.
For approximate August–July PFCE, the approximate calculation uses 2/3 of FY Q2, all of Q3 and Q4, all of the next FY Q1, and 1/3 of its Q2, for each survey window. The real aggregate totals are ₹15,246,502.0686 crore and ₹16,170,669.7352 crore. Linear interpolation of MoSPI mid-FY population yields 1,387.0887m and 1,399.6700m. Dividing aggregate PFCE by population gives a real per-person growth of 5.1081%. The difference from FY 5.2833% is 0.1752 point. Relative to ordinary survey real MPCE, the rough-window differences are 1.5723 and 1.6324 points. Equal within-quarter flow and linear population are assumptions; HCES recall prevents exact window equivalence.
These one-at-a-time sensitivities cannot be summed as an additive decomposition. The common-price scenario and quarterly-window scenario are not a jointly harmonised PFCE–HCES estimate. PFCE/HCES scope and survey uncertainty remain unresolved, and NAS partly uses HCES inputs. No standard error of a growth-rate gap, household-level recovery finding, or missing-rupee estimate has been calculated.
Sources
[1] MoSPI, National Accounts Statistics 2026, released 31 August 2026, base 2022–23: Statement 1.2, Statement 1.14, and quarterly Statement 8.18.1.
[2] MoSPI, HCES 2023–24, Report 592, especially Tables 3.3 and 3.18 and Appendix C.
[3] MoSPI, Sources and Methods for Compilation of National Accounts Statistics, 21 September 2026, chapter 21 and Annexes II and VII.
[4] Angus Deaton and Valerie Kozel, “Data and Dogma: The Great Indian Poverty Debate”, World Bank Research Observer 20(2), 2005, pp. 177–199.
[5] Espen Beer Prydz, Dean Jolliffe and Umar Serajuddin, Mind the Gap, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9779, 2021.
[6] Ashish Kumar and Payal Seth, “Bridging the Consumption Gap in India’s Statistics”, Economic & Political Weekly 61(5), 31 January 2026, pp. 22–25. Cited for prior-art scope; its numerical tables are not used here.